Friday, July 29, 2011

"Showdown"... the best of the losers!

 

2011 footy and today's investment game seem to have some common ground? This week we had 'Showdown IV - Property vs Shares' - a funny, yet serious debate on Toop.TV. If you're up for a smile…try watching it rather than this weekend's footy.

The Baker Young Stockbroker team took on REISA and it was gloves off. I'm not sure how many reports will be made, but judges are currently reviewing the Toop podcast - looking for blatant breaches of fair debating and excessive team spin.

Judges Melvin Mansell, Keith Conlon and Snowy (Jason) Carter boldly announced the winners as property - apparently by a small margin! The debate broadcast live at 1pm last Wednesday on Toop.TV including a live public vote. The public's choice - also property - by healthy 32% margin.

The losers picked up the anointed, while winners were crowned in glory - literally. Very funny!

This week, "SA's Finest" showcases an incredible home in Crafers....the video is definitely worth a look.

My IT guy is making me 'tweet', so anyone with a house to sell, tweet me @Anthony_Toop on Twitter!

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

38 days to sell…BEWARE OF SPRING

38 days to sell…BEWARE OF SPRING


Yes - it’s 38 days till spring and if you’re thinking of selling - then spring is definitely a time to be wary of. WHY??



Typically - everyone thinks spring is the best time to put their home on the market. The truth is spring - and especially late spring - is when the market is at its most vulnerable. Every year we remind sellers of this. Every year most ignore the warnings and guess what, every year we have to deal with the frustration of long periods on the market and softening demand.



Personally, I believe if the Reserve Bank doesn't work out that we need an urgent interest rate cut - they are completely out of touch. Confidence is teetering on the verge for most and a good old shot of lower interest rates now, would stabilise things in our backyard.



Look at what is happening globally - the Murdoch saga and the collapse of 'News of The World', the international financial turmoil and the Federal Government totally out of touch with Australians - no wonder confidence is on the edge.



The reality is we now have more new buyers starting to look for the perfect property. There is an opportunity to buy well, but there are hardly any properties to buy. Normally this would lead to big price hikes and upward price pressure. Of course, the reverse is occurring - this is a direct consequence of consumer confidence.



What happens then in spring? Suddenly a whole heap of new properties come onto the market and unless interest rates drop, or there is some amazing positive world event, we risk seeing a number of very untidy events in real estate.



And what about the stock market…whew! Property is looking pretty good compared to shares for someone as simple as me. DO NOT miss next weeks SHOWDOWN Property Vs Shares on ToopTV - Wednesday at 1pm. We have a studio debate on this very subject - it will be awesome.



Anyway, all this is irrelevant if you are buying and selling in the same market - and the good news is you will save money on Government taxes and Agents fees. The smart money would get your property sold now, and buy late spring!




Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Soft Property or Volatile Shares

Check this out… Toop&Toop currently have 10,081 registered buyers (as at Wednesday) - slightly up from a long term average just short of 10,000 where it hovered for years. Online buyer visits have not dipped AT ALL. On the other side of the card, latest official figures show there has been a drop of 16% in Lands Title Office settlements, and a drop in median prices.






These indicators show the number of new people enquiring to purchase is stronger now than it was in the better market, while the rate at which the current buyers are purchasing has slowed.







Another forward indicator has been the recent drop in actively advertised properties from over 2000 to 1773. These stock levels are a very big driver of the market. Toop&Toop's forecasting tool - the Toop Market Index (TMI) - compares new buyers entering the market vs active on-market homes and it shows conditions have begun trending back toward equilibrium. This is excellent news for those struggling to sell their homes.







RP Data's report released this week shows rents on the rise which will stimulate more investor activity, while rising rents will ultimately kick start the dormant first home buyers.







We called it two weeks ago... overall we are entering a stable period in the SA property market. Unlike the stock market this week, property remains stable. Sellers and buyers need to just 'get on with it' - stop watching their lives pass by.







The RP Data report on the rental market - released on Monday - is available here at http://www.toop.com.au/uploadfile/RPData11July.pdf. The analyst from RP Data appeared on Toop.TV Wednesday (go to Toop.TV), saying "...the balance is returning!"







Go Property! Ring me now on 0418 824 188 - and let's get the sale of your house moving.







Any comments and questions - email anthony.toop@toop.com.au




Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Homeless......but cashed up!

Last week’s column was an update on the 2011 market
and we talked about the winners and the losers.
Since then, I’ve been asked to elaborate and explain in more detail who is winning in property and why. To explain this it’s necessary to understand who the losers are and why. Remember there are always plenty of exceptions, but here is the undeniable emerging trend.

First the losers...
We’ve seen some terrible pain from first home buyers who took advantage of the First Home Owners Boost (FHOB) last year. They got caught up in the hype and purchased houses - often before they were financially ready. This unfortunate category was largely swept up into frenzy buying. They eagerly signed up for the huge handouts of $14 to $21k - only to discover 18 months later that their properties are in some cases worth tens of thousands less then what they paid.

The life lessons have been expensive for many FHOB buyers and I only hope that it doesn’t leave these people scarred for life when it comes to property ownership. To add to the woes, rental prices have been soft and it just isn’t a great time for many in this group.

Other losers are those who purchased their properties before selling. There is lots of unhappiness as the price of their new home drops whilst locked into their boom price purchase. Conditions changed, and of course, they remain stuck with their old home which has also dropped in price. In this market property will only sell when it’s adjusted to today’s market.

OUCH! Oh yes and let’s not talk about those who have settled on their new property - they now have 2 houses and a raging mortgage (plus rates/taxes/insurances) on both.
Ok - now for the winners...

This is one of those times to make money in property. The winning buyer categories are 1) First home buyers 2) Upgraders - those upgrading to a more expensive home 3) cashed up buyers who have sold their property first and 4) investors.
First home buyers - you are cashing in on those who bought property in the recent first home buyers hype and can no longer afford the mortgage. Or maybe their circumstances have changed - relationship breakdown maybe - and a sale is required.....often many $1,000s below the purchase price. The $21k government hand out has become irrelevant. The grant got swallowed up in the purchase price through an overstimulated market sector and has since been washed out thanks to changed conditions... that plus more. Demand was insane. Smart first home buyers today however are laughing all the way to the bank.

Upgraders - simple maths. If the market softens from the boom highs by 20%, then a $500k home is now $400k, a $1million home is now $800k. You are $100,000 in front plus all the savings in legal fees and stamp duty. Of course it’s never that simple - but you get the idea.

Cashed up! - in a declining market selling first will lead to a better sale price, while delaying your purchase will improve your buying power. Your cashed up bargaining power increases opportunities, creating even more upside. Go for a long settlement if you wish, it might help get a cash contract and also give you time to look around. If you do happen to end up homeless - you will be cashed up with no mortgage,
so just rent for a while if you have to.

Investors - if you’ve got cash, you’ll buy even better. Investors don’t have to worry about getting emotional - you don’t have to like the property, so you can be opportunistic. Rental demand is a sure bet in tougher times. You can offer the property at a slightly cheaper rent than other landlords who bought at the peak - and entice a better quality of tenant.. buying in this market is so much easier than a boom. You are in a great position.

This is a sensational time to make your real estate move. If you want to know more about taking advantage of this market, send me an email. We can help develop a personal strategy to seize the current opportunity.

I’m at anthony.toop@toop.com.au
Let’s get you ready and get you homeless!